Decision under uncertainty

Question

Tell one story about a consequential decision you made with incomplete evidence. State what was known, what was unknown, the reversible step you chose, and the signal that would make you change course.

## Preparation

- Write the user or stakeholder, the constraint, and the decision in one sentence each.
- Choose one measurement or observable fact that can support the answer.
- Name one alternative and the reason it was not selected.

## Review checklist

1. Did I state the concrete constraint before describing the solution?
2. Did I separate my own decision and work from the team's work?
3. Did I name evidence or a measurement rather than relying on confidence?
4. Can I answer every follow-up without changing the original facts?

## Staged follow-ups

1. Name the strongest evidence against your decision.
2. Explain what made the first step reversible.
3. Describe the checkpoint that caused you to continue or change course.
4. Say what you would do if the same signal arrived one week later.